eTAOC

The Atlantic Ocean Circulation is sensitive to freshwater perturbations such as the meltwater from ice sheets. Under continuing greenhouse gas emissions, it may undergo a transition to a collapsed state within a few decades, with potentially large climate impacts. In the eTAOC project we will develop general software to determine the probability of these type of transitions using rare event algorithms. This software will subsequently be used in the accompanying ERC-AdG project TAOC to estimate the probability that a climate disrupting state of the Atlantic Ocean Circulation will appear before the year 2100.