MOSAIC

Modelling sea level and inundation for cyclones

Coastal flooding due to tropical cyclones is one of the world’s most threatening hazards with damages up to hundreds of billions of euros per event. The risks of coastal floods are projected to increase in the future due to sea-level rise.

Policy-makers need accurate estimates of current and future flood risks in order to take informed decisions on disaster risk reduction and climate change adaptation. A major scientific challenge is to assess global flood risk with hydrodynamic models that have high resolution and accuracy. This can only be achieved by developing a novel approach that combines cutting-edge disciplinary science and eScience technologies. The aim of this project is developing and validating a computationally efficient, scalable, framework for large-scale flood risk assessment. This framework incorporates two major innovations:

  1. We will simulate extreme sea levels for thousands of synthetic tropical cyclones – by using goal programming as a tool to reduce the computational costs and combine multiple tropical cyclones into one simulation

  2. We will simulate flood inundation at high resolution by nesting local models within a global model – by coupling our models with the OMUSE software which allows for a multi-scale modelling approach.

Within the project, we will use the framework to test whether these improvements lead to more accurate estimates of extremes sea levels, inundation extent and flood risk. To this end, we select the North-Atlantic as a case study area. The novel framework is an important step towards improved global assessments of flood risk.

Participating organisations

Environment & Sustainability
Environment & Sustainability
Netherlands eScience Center
Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam

Impact

Output

  • 1.
    How to advance the global modelling of tropical cyclone-generated storm surges?
    Author(s): S. Muis, N Bloemendaal, N. Lin, I. Pelupessy, M. Verlaan, P. Ward, M. Chertova
    Published in American Geophysical Union, Fall Meeting 2019 in 2019

Team

Jaro Camphuijsen
Jaro Camphuijsen
Niels  Drost
Niels Drost
Programme Manager
Netherlands eScience Center
MC
Maria Chertova
eScience Research Engineer
Netherlands eScience Center
PW
Philip Ward
Principal investigator
Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam
Inti Pelupessy
Inti Pelupessy
Lead RSE
Netherlands eScience Center
Rena Bakhshi
Rena Bakhshi
eScience Coordinator
Netherlands eScience Center

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